Deep dive into our machine learning prediction system and understand how we generate betting insights.
Our predictions are powered by ensemble machine learning models trained on millions of historical games. We combine gradient boosting, neural networks, and statistical models for robust predictions.
Each prediction considers 50+ features including team performance metrics, player statistics, home/away splits, rest days, head-to-head history, and real-time injury reports.
Predictions are recalculated continuously as new data becomes available. Lineup changes, injury reports, and odds movements all trigger model updates.
For instant predictions, we use ONNX Runtime in your browser. This enables sub-second predictions without network latency, perfect for live betting scenarios.
We combine multiple model outputs using weighted averaging, where weights are determined by recent performance on similar game types.
The confidence score (0-100) indicates how certain our model is about a prediction. It's not the win probability, but rather how reliable the prediction is likely to be.
Predictions with high confidence have clear patterns in the data and consistent model agreement. These are typically your best betting opportunities.
Medium confidence predictions show some uncertainty. These can still be valuable but consider smaller bet sizes or combining with other analysis.
Low confidence indicates conflicting signals or limited data. These predictions should be approached with caution or used for research only.
A team can have 65% win probability with 90% confidence (we're sure they're favored) or 65% probability with 40% confidence (unclear matchup).
Our models achieve 58-62% accuracy on moneyline predictions across all sports. While this may seem modest, consistent 58%+ accuracy is profitable long-term.
Accuracy varies by sport: NBA predictions average 60%, NFL 57%, MLB 56%, and NHL 55%. Basketball's higher sample size and scoring enables better predictions.
More important than accuracy is ROI. Our high-confidence predictions (80+) have historically returned 8-12% ROI, outperforming the typical -10% from random betting.
Our probabilities are well-calibrated: when we predict 70% win probability, the team wins approximately 70% of the time over large samples.
We publish monthly performance reports showing prediction accuracy, ROI by confidence level, and comparison to closing lines. Past performance is available in your dashboard.